The Chinese can maintain their peg, in which case their economy may melt down as civil unrest grows and inflation spirals out of control, or they can remove it. If they remove it, their economy might collapse as it is still largely export-led and their foreign exchange reserves would instantly be worth much less.

Either way, it is not looking good for the Chinese economy.

When Bernanke spoke last week, he reiterated his belief that commodity inflation was transitory and caused primarily by emerging market demand.

If China's economy collapses, it would certainly reduce emerging market demand for commodities. Cheaper commodities might help the U.S. economy to recover. Perhaps Bernanke has been plotting this all along?

中国可以选择继续压低汇率，但是这样会使通货膨胀到不可收拾的地步，社会将开始动荡，最终经济也得崩溃。他们也可以选择自由升值，不过这样一来，他们严重依赖出口的经济同样会崩溃，而且外汇储备也立即贬值。

无论如何，对于中国经济都不是好事。

上周伯南克讲话时，他重申了他坚信大宗商品上涨是暂时的，并且主要是由新兴市场的需求引起。

如果中国经济崩溃，则新兴市场对于商品的需求将锐减。廉价的原材料将帮助美国经济复苏。或许伯南克这招蓄谋已久？

Action Items

Bullish: Traders who believe that China will be able to slow inflation and get their economy back on track might want to consider the following trades:

  • Buy iShares FTSE China 25 Index (NYSE: FXI) in a long play on the broader Chinese economy. FXI attempts to return a value corresponding to the general Chinese economy, and may rally if China continues to grow.
  • Buy United States Oil Fund (NYSE: USO) in a long play on oil. The price of oil may rise if the Chinese economy continues to grow, as Chinese consumers demand more.

Bearish: Traders who believe that the Chinese economy is poised for a collapse may consider taking positions in the following:

  • Wisdom Tree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund (NYSE: CYB) is a long play on the Chinese currency. If the Chinese pull their dollar peg, the yuan may appreciate significantly and CYB could rally.
  • PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short ETN (NYSE: DTO) is a short play on oil. If China's economy collapses, global demand for oil could plummet, which may lead to a drop in the price of oil.
相关交易品种
看多：相信中国能够减缓通胀并重拾升势的交易者可以考虑下列操作：
  • 买进iShares FTSE China 25(NYSE: FXI)以看多中国整体经济。FXI致力于反映中国整体经济的指标，如果中国继续增长，该指数将上涨。
  • 买进United States Oil Fund (NYSE: USO)以看多油价。如果中国继续增长，自然需要更多石油，油价将继续上涨。
看空：相信中国经济必然崩溃的交易者可以考虑以下产品：
  • Wisdom Tree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund (NYSE: CYB) 是一项看多人民币汇率的基金。如果中国取消对于汇率的压制，人民币兑美元汇率将暴涨，CYB基金也将上涨。
  • PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short ETN (NYSE: DTO)是一项看空油价的指数。如果中国经济崩溃，则全球原油需求量将会暴跌，油价自然也会下跌。